AUD / USD Analysis

Today’s release showed that factory activity expanded in Australia’s biggest trade partner, as Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2 in June, from 49.6% prior, with sub-50 reading representing contraction.

China offered more encouraging new this week, since authorities updated the COVID-19 protocol and cut isolation times for inbound travelers to seven days plus three days of in-home health monitoring.

Yesterday’s data reaffirmed the resilience of the Australian economy, as Retail Sales steadied at 0.9% month-over-month in May.

Despite these recent encouraging news and economic releases, fears over global stagflation persist and have not allowed the Aussie to capitalize on last week’s rebound against the US Dollar. US final GDP print revealed a bigger contraction of 1.6% in Q1 (annualized), up from the -1.5% of the second reading.

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During Wednesday’s “super-panel” at the ECB Forum in Sintra, Fed Chair Powell acknowledged the risk of going too far with monetary tightening, but reiterated the bank’s resolve to bring inflation down with a front-loaded rate hike cycle.

AUD / USD avoided fresh June lows earlier and got a lift from China’s PMIs. Although we could see further rebound in the near-term, we struggle to see what would lead to a test of the descending trendline from this month’s high (0.6990) at this point.

The pair remains contained by the EMA100 (black line) and the broader bias is clearly on the downside. As such, there is increased risk of fresh 2022 lows (0.6829), although bears will likely need fresh impetus for taking 06756 out.

Markets now brace for another inflation update from the US, in the form of the Personal Consumption Expenditures, which could spur volatility and determine the pair’s next move.