The next presidential elections in Russia are scheduled for 2024. At the same time, the behavior of the president gives reason to think that after them Russia will have a new Supreme Commander-in-Chief. There are several time frames that are appropriate for Putin to leave office.
Magazine Reconomica predicts when a new president will appear in Russia and where to expect him from.
What year will Putin leave
The first option that can be considered is 2024. Putin’s fourth term will end, the president will turn 71. The opportunity to be re-elected after the fourth term allows him not to worry about the fact that the likely successors will begin to divide power in advance, which often leads to undesirable consequences. So Vladimir Putin may well leave in 2024.
Putin will leave in 2030 or 2036
It is difficult to predict the option under which Vladimir Putin will leave in 2030 or 2036. In October 2030, Vladimir Putin will turn 78 years old – a very solid age, so making predictions is difficult.
But if the current president decides to rule for the rest of his life, then 2036 may not be the last in Vladimir Putin’s career.
Putin will leave in 2021
Recently, there are more and more rumors that the president will leave office before the expiration of the fourth term. Moreover, they are talking about the very near future. Some rumors are related to the president’s health (allegedly he is ill and will not be able to fulfill his duties in full), others – with a formal resignation and transfer to another post. As an example, they use the decision of Nazarbayev, who ceased to be president and headed the Security Council of Kazakhstan. Given that Dmitry Medvedev has already been sent to the Russian Security Council, it is likely that Putin is preparing a place in this body of power for himself.
Formally, Putin can stop being president at any moment, but this will not mean the end of his influence on the political life of the country.
Putin will leave after elections to the State Duma
At the moment, the state of the United Russia party is not entirely clear. In 2021, elections to the State Duma will be held, which should revive the country’s main party. It is quite possible that after the (successful) elections, the president will head the party, or he will head the State Duma. Also, do not forget about the period during which Putin was the prime minister of Russia. The positions to which he can leave can be anything. It is important that the rest of the elite remain in their places, so that Putin can govern the country from any cabinet, regardless of the formal title of his office.
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Why would Putin leave?
Of course, the president may have personal motives that we do not know about. At the same time, there are also quite logical reasons for leaving the presidency for another position. Globally, since 2014, when Putin’s rating was the highest, it has been steadily declining. The pension reform, which was carried out in 2018, played a large role in the confidence of Russians in the authorities.
One way or another, Putin is not as loved by the people as he was 6 years ago. Given the economic situation, there is no reason to believe that it will skyrocket in popularity anytime soon. There are no mechanisms or actions that can be applied for this.
Of course, Putin can take and personally cancel the pension reform. And also to declare that he will not allow robbing pensioners (or something like that). Such a step would sharply raise the president’s rating, but the entire Pension Fund would grab its head – it is very difficult for the current budget to survive the cancellation of the pension reform. One way or another, the president cannot have any simple actions to increase his rating.
Putin chooses a successor
It is possible that Putin’s presidency will end the moment he chooses his successor.
It is not known whether the casting is taking place right now, but it is unlikely that Vladimir Putin does not think about it – after all, he himself came to power in this way, so he knows very well about the work of such a mechanism. It is difficult to talk about who will become the president’s successor. Perhaps someone from the heads of law enforcement agencies, perhaps someone from the economic part of the government. But Russians are unlikely to know the name of a successor before the president himself decides to announce him.
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